SHEKARUNKA NA JIKI NA IYA YIN ƘARYA

Wani algorithm yana kallon hoton bayan idonka sannan ya ƙiyasta shekarunka. Idan ya ce 60 alhali kai shekara 55 kake, wannan “tazarar shekaru” ta shekara biyar ana karanta ta a matsayin alamar cewa jikinka yana tsufa fiye da yadda ya kamata. Irin waɗannan alamomin tsufa na jiki (biological ageing markers), ko “agogon tsufa”, yanzu akwai su na ido, ƙwaƙwalwa, ƙirji, ciki da jini, kuma bincike sun danganta manyan tazarar shekaru da cututtuka da mutuwa.

Wani bincike na masu bincike 55, wanda University College London da Asibitin Ido na Moorfields suka jagoranta, ya gano wani aibu a yadda ake karanta waɗannan agogo.

Agogo biyar, rukunoni biyar

Ƙungiyar ta gina ko ta yi amfani da alamomi biyar:

• Shekarun Ido (Retinal Age), daga hotunan bayan ido (hotuna 65,360 daga marasa lafiya 12,141 a London);
• Shekarun Ƙirji (Chest Age), daga hotunan X-ray na ƙirji (hotuna 21,733);
• Shekarun Ciki (Abdominal Age), daga hotunan CT na ciki (hotuna 4,984);
• Shekarun Ƙwaƙwalwa (Brain Age), daga MRI na ƙwaƙwalwa (hotuna 1,454 daga mutane 808);
• PhenoAge, wata dabara da aka wallafa wadda ke haɗa shekaru da gwaje-gwajen jini na yau da kullum guda tara (mahalarta 41,512 na UK Biobank).

Agogon gaɓoɓi guda huɗu samfuran koyo mai zurfi (deep learning) ne da aka horar a kan mutanen da ba su da wata cuta da aka rubuta kawai, sannan aka gwada su a kan cakuɗen lafiyayyu da marasa lafiya. Kamar a binciken da suka gabata, dukkansu biyar sun nuna cewa babbar tazarar shekaru tana tafiya tare da rashin lafiya — a matsakaici, a kan dukkan rukunin.

Ja zuwa tsakiya

Kowane samfurin ƙididdiga irin wannan yana fama da komawa zuwa matsakaici (regression to the mean): ana jan hasashensa zuwa matsakaicin shekarun bayanan da aka horar da shi a kai. Matasa suna kama da sun ɗan fi shekarunsu girma, tsofaffi kuma sun ɗan fi ƙuruciya. An san wannan, kuma akwai hanyoyin gyara shi.

Abin da ƙungiyar ta gano shi ne cewa wannan jan ba ɗaya yake ga kowa ba. A cikin dukkan agogon gaɓoɓi huɗu, tazarar shekaru ta ragu da shekaru cikin sauri a marasa lafiya fiye da lafiyayyu. Misali, a Shekarun Ido, tazarar ta ragu da shekara 0.31 a kowace shekarar rayuwa a rukunin marasa lafiya, idan aka kwatanta da 0.18 a rukunin lafiyayyu. Marubutan suna kiran wannan komawa zuwa matsakaici mai bambanci (differential regression to the mean). Bayaninsu: alamomin cuta suna sa hoto ya fi wuyar karantawa ga samfurin da aka horar a kan lafiyayyun mutane, don haka ana jan hasashensa da ƙarfi zuwa matsakaici.

Alaƙar da ke dushewa — ko ta juye

Sakamakon yana bayyana idan aka raba bayanan bisa shekaru. A Shekarun Ido, kowace ƙarin shekara ta tazarar shekaru ta ƙara damar zama maras lafiya da 11% ƙasa da shekara 50, amma alaƙar ta ɓace a shekara 80 zuwa sama. A Shekarun Ƙirji, alaƙar tana da kyau (positive) ƙasa da shekara 40, ba ta nan tsakanin 40 da 70, kuma ta juye bayan 70: hoton X-ray na ƙirji da ke “kama da tsoho” sai ya ɗan tafi tare da ingantacciyar lafiya. Shekarun Ciki ma ya bi irin wannan tsarin dushewa.

Shekarun Ƙwaƙwalwa ne kawai ya bambanta: alaƙar ta ci gaba da kasancewa mai kyau a kowane shekaru. Tazarar da ke tsakanin rukunonin da yaɗuwar ƙimomi sun ragu tare, don haka rabonsu ya tsaya daidai. Komawa zuwa matsakaici mai bambanci na iya karkatar da hoton, in ji marubutan, amma ba koyaushe ba.

Babu gyara mai sauƙi

Masu binciken sun gwada magungunan da aka saba a kan Shekarun Ido. Sake daidaita ma’aunin tazarar shekaru ya daidaita yanayin a lafiyayyu amma ya bar yanayin rukunin marasa lafiya a wurinsa. Sake horar da samfurin a kan shekaru da aka daidaita su sosai ya ɗan ƙara son kan. Haka abin ya kasance ga sauran agogon gaɓoɓi uku. PhenoAge na jini, wanda ke ɗaukar ainihin shekaru kai tsaye a matsayin bayanan shigarwa maimakon ƙiyasta su, bai nuna irin wannan son kai ba.

Mutum ɗaya ba rukuni ba ne

Gwaji mafi ban mamaki yana kwatanta mutane ɗaiɗai. A kowane rukunin shekaru, ƙungiyar ta haɗa kowane lafiyayye da kowane maras lafiya. A kowane agogo da kowane rukunin shekaru, lafiyayyen mutum ne ke da babbar tazarar shekaru a aƙalla kashi ɗaya cikin huɗu na nau’i-nau’i. A Shekarun Ido daga shekara 80 zuwa sama, hakan ya faru a 59% na nau’i-nau’i — fiye da rabi. Wasu lafiyayyun marasa lafiya sun bayyana sun “fi tsufa” da shekara 8.8 zuwa 16.4 fiye da maras lafiya mai shekaru ɗaya da su. Hatta PhenoAge ya yi kuskuren jeri a kashi 39 zuwa 41% na nau’i-nau’i.

Karanta agogon bisa shekaru

Marubutan suna kira da a ba da rahoton alaƙoƙi a cikin rukunonin shekaru maimakon dukkan rukunin mutane, kuma suna ba da shawarar ƙara wani ma’aunin hulɗa tsakanin shekaru da tazarar shekaru a cikin samfuran — a bayanan ido, wannan ya dawo da mafi yawan aikin da aka rasa a rukunin mafiya tsufa. Binciken nasu yana da iyaka: “lafiyayye” yana nufin rashin wata cuta da aka rubuta kawai, an gwada kowane agogo a rukuni ɗaya kawai, kuma nazarce-nazarcen na lokaci ɗaya ne (cross-sectional). Duk da haka ƙarshensu a fili yake: babu ɗaya daga cikin waɗannan agogo da zai iya faɗin, shi kaɗai, yadda wani takamaiman mutum yake da lafiya tukuna.